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Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change

Finnish Environment Institute, Research Department, Research Programme for Biodiversity, PO Box 140, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland, risto.heikkinen{at}ymparisto.fi

Miska Luoto

Finnish Environment Institute, Research Department, Research Programme for Biodiversity, PO Box 140, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland

Miguel B. Araújo

Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Madrid, Spain, Macroecology and Conservation Unit, University of Évora, Portugal

Raimo Virkkala

Finnish Environment Institute, Research Department, Research Programme for Biodiversity, PO Box 140, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland

Wilfried Thuiller

Macroecology and Conservation Unit, University of Évora, Portugal, Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR-CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France

Martin T. Sykes

Geobiosphere Science Centre, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Sweden

Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic ‘envelope’models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO₂ effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties.

Key Words: bioclimatic model • climate change • land cover • model performance • modelling methods • niche properties • scale • species distribution model • species geography • uncertainty • validation

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