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Response of karst springs to climate change and anthropogenic activities: the Niangziguan Springs, China

Key Laboratory of Water Environment and Resources, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China, haoyhong{at}yahoo.com, haoyh{at}sxu.edu.cn

Yajie Wang

College of Computer and Information Engineering, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China

Yuen Zhu

College of Environment and Resources, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi Province, China, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Yi Lin

Department of Mathematics, Slippery Rock University, Slippery Rock, PA 16057, USA

Jet-Chau Wen

Department of Safety, Health and Environmental Engineering, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Touliu, Yunlin 64045, Taiwan

Tian-Chyi J. Yeh

Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA, Department of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City 701, Taiwan

Discharge from the largest karst spring in north China, the Niangziguan Springs, has been declining since the 1950s. This paper examines the response of these springs to climatic change and anthropogenic influence by attempting a model-based discrimination between phases in the stream discharge record. In Niangziguan Springs Basin, the exploitation of karst groundwater began in 1979. Accordingly, the spring discharge data were divided into two phases: pre-1979 and post-1979. In the first phase (1957—78) the spring discharge was believed to be affected solely by climate change, and in the second phase (1979—2007) the spring discharge was influenced by both climate change and human activities. Using grey system theory, a discharge model was estimated for the first phase. Extrapolating the model, we obtained a projection of the spring discharge during the second phase. Using a water balance calculation, we discerned the respective effects of climate change and human activities on depletion of spring discharge for the second phase. The results show that the contribution of climate change to depletion of Niangziguan Springs is 2.30m³/s and the contribution of anthropogenic activities ranges from 1.89 to 2.90 m³/s, although this assumes a constant for the climate change effect. Accordingly, the anthropogenic effects have been approaching and surpassing the effects of climate change during the second phase. With respect to the impact of human activities on spring discharge, groundwater abstraction accounts for only about 34—52% of the declines; 48—66% of the declines are related to other human activities, such as dewatering from coal mining, dam building and deforestation.

Key Words: anthropogenic influence • climate change • GM(1,1) model • grey system modelling • Niangziguan Springs.

This version was published on October 1, 2009

Progress in Physical Geography, Vol. 33, No. 5, 634-649 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0309133309346651


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