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Predicting regional climate change: living with uncertainty

Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

Mike Hulme

Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

Regional climate prediction is not an insoluble problem, but it is a problem characterized by inherent uncertainty. There are two sources of this uncertainty: the unpredictability of the climatic and global systems. The climate system is rendered unpredictable by deterministic chaos; the global system renders climate prediction uncertain through the unpredictability of the external forcings imposed on the climate system. It is commonly inferred from the differences between climate models on regional scales that the models are deficient, but climate system unpredictability is such that this inference is premature; the differences are due to an unresolved combination of climate system unpredictability and model deficiencies. Since model deficiencies are discussed frequently and the two sources of inherent uncertainty are discussed only rarely, this review considers the implications of climatic and global system unpredictability for regional climate prediction. Consequently we regard regional climate prediction as a cascade of uncertainty, rather than as a single result process sullied by model deficiencies. We suggest three complementary methodological approaches: (1) the use of multiple forcing scenarios to cope with global system unpredictability; (2) the use of ensembles to cope with climate system unpredictability; and (3) the consideration of the entire response of the climate system to cope with the nature of climate change. We understand regional climate change in terms of changes in the general circulations of the atmosphere and oceans; so we illustrate the role of uncertainty in the task of regional climate prediction with the behaviour of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. In conclusion we discuss the implications of the uncertainties in regional climate prediction for research into the impacts of climate change, and we recognize the role of feedbacks in complicating the relatively simple cascade of uncertainties presented here.

Key Words: climate change • climate modelling • downscaling • external forcing • regional climate prediction • uncertainty • unpredictability

Progress in Physical Geography, Vol. 23, No. 1, 57-78 (1999)
DOI: 10.1177/030913339902300103


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